Tactical asset allocation
The Tactical investor is the place where Mass Psychology and Technical analysis converge seamlessly in a process we have come to refer to as Tactical Investing. This convergence helps ensure we are on the right side of the markets. Emotions and not logic drive the markets. Emotions are behind every investment decision, even though many traders will vehemently deny this. Mass psychology identifies the emotion that’s driving the crowd, and once that is identified, the trend can be determined. Identifying the trend allows us to get into investments just before they take off. Technical analysis helps with fine-tuning the entry points, thereby providing us with the opportunity to get into a given investment at the best possible price.
Tactical Investing amounts to being on the right side of the markets at the right time. To ensure we are always on the right side of the market, we incorporate the four elements (shown in the infographic) into our analysis. Employing this methodology gives us an advantage very few systems can boast; we can spot trend changes in advance of the event.
Bull Flag Pattern
stocks with a bull flag pattern
What is a bull flag pattern
In September we penned a second article in the Alternative Dow theory series, titled “Dow theory no longer relevant-Better Alternative exists where we stated that the Dow theory as it stood was no longer relevant. Here is a brief excerpt from that article.
The transports topped out in November of 2014, and according to the Dow theory this is a big negative; the Dow industrials should have followed suit. Instead, the Dow soared higher paying no heed to this theory proving to a large degree that this theory has lost its value. After all, it is a theory and the definition of a theory is “a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained.”
That is why way back in 2006 we offered a Dow theory Alternative that has proved to be far more accurate and reliable than the Dow theory. Just to let this sink in, the transports topped out almost two years ago and instead of trending lower the markets have surged to new highs. If you look at the above chart, the Transports appear to be finally gathering momentum and to break out. In the Dow theory alternative, we stated it was the Utilities that lead the way as opposed to the Dow transports, well let’s see if that holds true.
Instead of the markets breaking down, due to the negative divergence between the Dow Transports and the Dow Industrials, the market after experiencing a very brief shock due to a Trump win, recouped and went on to soar to new highs. For the record, we predicted in September that a Trump win would prove to be an excellent buying opportunity in advance of the development.
From a pure trading perspective, a Trump win would provide contrarian players with an incredibly attractive buying opportunity. Like Brexit, the crowd is bound to overreact as they stampede for the exits, creating opportunity instead of a disaster. The experts were dead sure that Brexit was going to create chaos; turns out that the only mess it created was amongst the experts when they were forced to eat their rubbish.
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